Book Review: "Here One Moment" by Liane Moriarty

“If free will doesn’t exist, if all your decisions and actions are inevitable, are you still required to apologize for them?”

It seemed like an ordinary flight on an ordinary day. Yes, there were delays, but ultimately, the plane took off and headed for its destination.

Unexpectedly, an older woman stood up and got out of her seat. At first, no one paid her much attention. But then she started telling each passenger something—the cause of their death and the age at which they will die. Some were told they will die many years into the future, yet some were told their deaths will be sooner and, in some cases, more tragic.

Is this some sort of joke, some sort of scam, or does the woman really know of what she speaks? After the flight lands and the passengers go on their way, the woman’s predictions haunt them. Should they change the trajectory of their lives to avoid any possibility of dying the way she predicted? No one knows for sure until the first few deaths occur.

The narrative that follows traces a number of the passengers and how their lives are affected by what they were told. It also focuses on the woman and the story of her life, and how she came to the moments on the plane.

I felt like this book had a lot of potential but was just way too long. I definitely got attached to many of the characters, but the woman’s narrative never grabbed me, and it seemed to take me out of the story. Ultimately though, the book’s message of living in the moment and not having regrets is a good one.

The Oscars Nominations: What Might Happen

Tomorrow morning, the Oscar nominations will be announced. Like everything else, this has been a strange year for movies, so the Oscar eligibility period was extended and the ceremony itself was delayed until late April. (It's usually all over by now.) And with everything eventually being available on streaming services, the number of movies eligible has increased as well.

I'm a huge Oscar fan, and every other year I would've seen nearly everything that's under consideration for awards. This year, however, I've seen only a few movies so far, although I intend to pick up the slack and see everything that gets nominated before the ceremonies occur.

One of my stupid pet tricks is my ability to name the nominees and winners for Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Director from when the awards started in 1927 until present day. (Go ahead. Test me.) As I've done the last several years, I've tried to predict what I think the Academy will do with regard to nominations. Some years I'm right on target and some years I get surprised (both positively and negatively). These predictions aren't what I would like to happen necessarily, it's just how I predict the Academy will behave.

This is a weird year, however. I expect to be either very right in most categories or very, very wrong. (I'm not sure which I hope for more.) So here's what I think, and I'll be back tomorrow to share what actually transpired!

Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Analysis: Once again this year, the Academy has been mum on how many films will get nominated for Best Picture. (Starting next year, they'll go to a solid 10 nominees.) I picked 9 movies, but who knows? It's possible the Academy could go the comedy route with Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, go with The Mauritanian or One Night in Miami, or drop one or a few of these.

Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari

Analysis: One thing is for absolute certain, and that is that Chadwick Boseman will win a posthumous Oscar for his utterly incredible performance in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. Ahmed and Hopkins are definite locks for nominations (some say this award would have been Hopkins' had Boseman not lost his courageous battle with colon cancer); Oldman probably will get in, although enthusiasm for Mank seems to have cooled a bit, and for me, Yeun is the wild card. I think he'll get in, although I wouldn't be surprised if either he or Oldman is passed over for Tahar Rahim in The Mauritanian. Delroy Lindo, who gave a strong performance in Da 5 Bloods, was the early favorite, but he didn't get Golden Globe or SAG nominations, so I don't know if that bodes well for him.

Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States Vs. Billie Holliday
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot

Analysis: I hemmed and hawed a bit here, and decided to go with Pike, who won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy, over Vanessa Kirby for Pieces of a Woman. Pike has been nominated before, but dark comedies don't always resonate well with the Academy, while Kirby has never been nominated but gives an emotional performance. Of course, I could be surprised even more and the sentimental favorite, 86-year-old Sophia Loren, could sneak in for A Life Ahead, 50 years after she won an Oscar for Two Women. I wish there was a slot for Michelle Pfeiffer for French Exit, but that seems less and less a possibility.

Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Analysis: So I'll address the elephant in the room first. I believe Boseman will be the first person to receive two posthumous acting nominations tomorrow, but I'll only be happy with one of them. I don't believe this performance would be recognized had he not died—it's really not much of a role, IMHO. I believe his slot should go to either Glynn Turman or Colman Domingo, Boseman's costars in Ma Rainey. Also, Kaluuya, who appears to be the frontrunner in this category, is the co-lead of the movie and doesn't belong here, but that's typical of the Oscars. In terms of other surprises, it's possible if Minari has an incredible showing that adorable Alan Kim could get a nod, or Jared Leto with his prosthetic overbite could sneak in for The Little Things.

Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

Analysis: So this category is utterly unpredictable. I believe a spot belongs to Amanda Seyfried for Mank (she was great), but again, I think she'll be a victim of the movie's cooling hype. There is some momentum for Ellen Burstyn to get a nomination for a short performance in Pieces of a Woman, 20 years after her last nomination (which she should have won for, cough cough), but like Sophia Loren, she didn't receive Golden Globe or SAG nominations. Bakalova is actually the female lead, but anyone who had to act opposite Giuliani deserves something, no?

Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Analysis: If the Academy knows what's good for it, history better be made tomorrow, with the nomination of at least two women for Best Director. Regina King could sneak in as well for One Night in Miami, but whether she knocks out Sorkin or Fennell remains to be seen. Florian Zeller could sneak in, too, if the Academy likes The Father.

How right or wrong will I be? Tune in tomorrow!

Oscar Nominations: How Did I Do?

So last night I posted my predictions for the Oscar nominations in the major categories.

After listening to the announcement of the nominations this morning, I found that I did well relative to my predictions in most categories and bombed in one. But more importantly, other than one major snub, I'm not really that unhappy with this year's nominations. Are there people or movies I wish were nominated? Sure, but this isn't that bad on the whole, despite the lack of diversity, which I never expect anyhow.

So, let's look at how I did.

Best Picture
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Parasite

Analysis: I went 9/9 here. I would've loved to see Knives Out or The Farewell take the 10th slot, but this is a strong batch of nominees. (I wasn't a fan of one of them, and the second didn't wow me, but still.)

Best Actor
Antonion Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Analysis: I overthought this one a lot, because I went 2/5. But I am thrilled that Banderas got his first nomination for his amazing performance, and I think this is one of Leo's best as well, better than the one he won his Oscar for! I'm also excited for Jonathan Pryce, who was dead-on as Pope Francis. I would've loved to see Eddie Murphy or Christian Bale, but I don't know which actor I would take out.

Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

Analysis: I went 5/5 here. I would've put Awkwafina in, but I didn't think it would happen, sadly. I'm happy Ronan got in here, and it's exciting that Cynthia Erivo received nominations for Best Actress and Best Original Song. (If you've never heard this woman sing, go on YouTube. She is mesmerizing.) Amazingly, Theron got her first nomination since 2005 and Zellweger got her first since winning Best Supporting Actress in 2003.

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Analysis: I went 4/5 here. I was hoping Song Kang-Ho might make it in here for Parasite, but I'm not surprised by Anthony Hopkins' inclusion on this list. Here's some interesting trivia: this is Tom Hanks' first nomination since 2000 (his first for Best Supporting Actor), Hopkins' first since 1997, and Pacino's first since his double nomination in 1992.

Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Analysis: I went 4/5 here, too. So if I'm mad about anything, it's that J. Lo was snubbed. I didn't buy into the conventional wisdom of some film bloggers who said she'd get passed over and I feel she deserved to be on this list. I also would have loved to see Zhao Shuzhen here, too, but I am thrilled Florence Pugh was nominated. Kathy Bates does get her first nomination since 2002.

Best Director
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Analysis: I went 4/5 here as well. I am surprised Todd Phillips was included despite his, umm, less-than-stellar reputation in Hollywood, but I guess voters' love of Joker and admiration for his artistry outweighed his faults. I wish Greta Gerwig made the list, or even Pedro Almodovar, but the directors' branch is a funny one. Sam Mendes gets his first nomination since winning this award in 1999.

And there you have it! I feel better than I normally do on the day of the nominations announcement, so there's that. Will all of the expected choices win? Tune in on February 9!

Oscar Nominations: What I Think Might Happen...

It's that time again...tomorrow (Monday) at around 8:37 a.m. ET, the nominations for the 92nd Academy Awards will be announced. Those of you who know me know in addition to being a voracious reader, I'm a huge movie fan and the slightest bit Oscar-obsessed.

I definitely try to see everything that gets nominated in all of the major categories (some years even tracking a movie down to an obscure theater more than an hour from here) and for the longest time, one of my stupid party tricks is the ability to name the nominees and winners for Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Director from when the awards started in 1927 until present day. (Go ahead. Test me.)

As I've done the last several years, I've tried to predict what I think the Academy will do with regard to nominations. Some years I'm right on target and some years I get surprised (both positively and negatively). These predictions aren't what I would like to happen necessarily, it's just how I predict the Academy will behave.

This year, while there may be front-runners to win the four acting categories (Joaquin Phoenix, Renee Zellweger, Brad Pitt, and Laura Dern), the rest of the nominees could go in any number of directions. With a compressed schedule for nominations, it's anyone's guess (including mine) what will happen, so here's my best try. I'll report back Monday evening on how off-target I was.

Best Picture
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Parasite

Analysis: As they've been doing for a number of years now, the Academy nominates a random number of pictures between 5 and 10 based on a vote threshold, so you can never predict how many will be nominated. I chose nine although I'm hoping Knives Out and/or The Farewell winds up on the list, hopefully not at the expense of Little Women. Ford v. Ferrari might also be vulnerable.

Best Actor
Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari
Robert DeNiro, The Irishman
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Analysis: If I had my way, this category would include Antonio Banderas for his fantastic turn in Pain and Glory and Leonardo DiCaprio, for one of his best performances, in Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood. But from what I've been reading, people think DiCaprio has the weakest hold on a nod, and they think The Irishman will have a solid showing tomorrow, letting DeNiro slide in despite not having been nominated for either a Golden Globe or a SAG. I also think perennial Academy favorite Bale will sneak in. There are a number of other actors—Eddie Murphy in Dolemite is My Name, Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems, and Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes—which could also surprise.

Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

Analysis: Again, there are a few other actresses whose names being called tomorrow wouldn't surprise me. I'd be thrilled if Awkwafina gets nominated for The Farewell (as long as it's not the expense of Saoirse Ronan), and there's also a possibility that Lupita Nyong'o could get nominated for Us (despite the dismal record of horror films at the Oscars) and/or Alfre Woodard could score her first nomination since 1983(!) for Clemency.

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Song Kang-ho, Parasite
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

Analysis: I'm going with the surprise nomination of Song here despite his not being nominated for a SAG or Golden Globe, because I think Parasite will do really well tomorrow morning in the nominations. (Plus he was freaking fantastic.) Anthony Hopkins' performance as Pope Benedict in The Two Popes could get in, or a true supporting performance like Tracy Letts for his terrific turn in Ford v. Ferrari or Alan Alda for Marriage Story could surprise, too. (The interesting thing will be whether Tom Hanks gets nominated for the first time in 20 years—he's been expected to several times before and been left out.)

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Analysis: This is a tough category, really. I'm hoping that Zhao Shuzhen gets a surprise nomination for The Farewell. (I've totally given up hope that Annette Bening will get in here for playing Sen. Dianne Feinstein in the little-seen The Report, despite my total allegiance to her getting an Oscar someday.) Some think Robbie could get nominated for Once Upon a Time... instead (I don't think that would be deserving). There's also an outside possibility that despite doing little more than glaring, Anna Paquin could sneak in if The Irishman has a strong showing.

Best Director
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

Analysis: I'd like to see Pedro Almodovar score his second Best Director nomination for Pain & Glory, or Greta Gerwig get in for Little Women (I really enjoyed the storytelling choices she made with this film) instead of Waititi, but I think this list will match the Directors' Guild nominees. Todd Phillips could get in for Joker, or Noah Baumbach could surprise with a nod for Marriage Story, too.

Hopefully it's a more exciting than frustrating announcement this year!

Oscar Nominations: What I Think Will Happen

Those of you who know me well know that I've been fairly obsessed with the Oscars for years now. We do our best each year to see every movie and performance nominated for the major awards, and thanks to my ridiculous trivia-laden brain, I can tell you everyone nominated for Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Director, as well as all of the movies nominated for Best Picture, since the Oscars started in 1927. (It's a super-useful skill on the open market.)

Tomorrow morning at around 8:37 a.m. ET this year's Oscar nominations will be announced. As I've done for a number of years, I am listing my predictions of what I think will get nominated for the major categories (along with some analysis of what I wish would happen), and then tomorrow I'll see how I did.

So, here goes!

Best Picture
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Analysis: Every year since 2009 there has been a variable number of Best Picture nominees. Some years there are seven, eight, nine, even ten. No one knows how many there will be because of the way Best Picture nominees are voted for. I'm picking eight—if the Academy goes with one more I think it will be either If Beale Street Could Talk or First Man (which I loved); First Reformed, Mary Poppins Returns, or Crazy Rich Asians could surprise as well.


Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Analysis: If I had my picks, I'd have Lucas Hedges for Boy Erased and/or Ethan Hawke for First Reformed in there. While sadly, Hedges doesn't have a chance this year (and he also turned in another award-worthy performance in Ben is Back), Hawke could sneak in and replace Washington (Hawke has won more film critics' awards than any other actor). There's also a chance that Willem Dafoe could get a nod for his performance as Vincent Van Gogh in At Eternity's Gate.(Sadly, two other really strong performances—Ryan Gosling in First Man and Robert Redford for The Old Man and the Gun—don't even make the discussion.)


Best Actress
Yalitzia Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Analysis: While I believe that Close, Colman, Gaga, and McCarthy have their slots sewn up, that fifth one is anyone's guess. I'm betting Aparicio will ride a huge wave for Roma tomorrow, but other possibilities are Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns, Viola Davis for Widows, Nicole Kidman for Destroyer, and critical favorite Toni Colette for Hereditary. (If everything was fair, Julia Roberts would get a nomination for her fantastic performance in Ben is Back, and Charlize Theron deserves a nod for Tully, but comedies never fare well.)


Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Analysis: One of the things that will make me so happy tomorrow is if Sam Elliott finally gets his first Oscar nomination after a long career. However, I think he's the one with the best chance of being left off the list, too, in favor of last year's winner, Sam Rockwell, for Vice. (It's also possible that Chalamet, who received Golden Globe and SAG nominations, could be overlooked instead. If The Favourite leads the nominations tomorrow, Nicholas Hoult could also sneak in.


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Analysis: I really, really, really want Claire Foy to be nominated for First Man. I'm hoping she gets in over Blunt, who was the female lead (I hate when leading performances get nominated for supporting awards). I'd also like to see Nicole Kidman get nominated for Boy Erased, but that seems unlikely, as does my sentimental favorite, Michelle Yeoh, for Crazy Rich Asians. While King really should be the favorite for this award, there's an outside chance she could get passed over, like she did for the SAGs, although I doubt that will happen.


Best Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Analysis: I'm sticking my neck out with my prediction of Lanthimos over Adam McKay for Vice (who received a Directors Guild of America nomination along with Cooper, Cuaron, Farrelly, and Lee), but there's often one surprise. There are many times that actor-turned-directors don't get nominated when their films do (Ron Howard for Apollo 13, Ben Affleck for Argo, Penny Marshall for Awakenings), so Cooper could get left out, although I'd be surprised. Other possibilities include Damien Chazelle for First Man, Ryan Coogler for Black Panther, and Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk.


How off will I be? Check back tomorrow and I'll let you know. (If you listen closely, you might hear me cheering or crying, "Why?", tomorrow, too.)

2017 Oscar Nominations: What happened

This morning, Tiffany Haddish and Andy Serkis announced the nominations for the 90th Academy Awards. Despite Haddish's trouble pronouncing certain names (she was funny but after a while I felt bad for the nominees whose names were being mangled), I thought she and Serkis did a great job, much better than the convoluted announcement from last year.

Yesterday I posted a list of my predictions for the Oscar nominations in the major categories. I certainly didn't expect to be totally right (it's always a bit of a crapshoot), but I didn't do that badly. There were some surprises, some definite snubs (a few of which incensed me), and some exciting milestones as well.

For example, Rachel Morrison became the first female cinematographer nominated (for Mudbound) ever. Christopher Plummer is the oldest acting nominee ever, at 88. Mary J. Blige became the first person to be nominated for an acting award and Best Original Song in the same year. Lesley Manville and Gary Oldman, who used to be married to each other, are the first couple since Elizabeth Taylor and Richard Burton to be nominated for acting Oscars in the same year. Fun stuff.

And now on to the nominations:

Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
The Darkest Hour Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Analysis: I went 7/9 in my predictions, picking The Big Sick and I, Tonya instead of The Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread. The latter film's success in the nominations was a bit of a surprise, particularly here and in Best Director.


Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Analysis: I went 4/5 here, although I did say that there was a possibility James Franco would get left out for Denzel Washington, whether because of the allegations of sexual impropriety and harassment or because Academy voters thought his performance was too light. With his eighth nomination, Washington breaks his own record as the most-nominated African-American actor. I'm super excited about Chalamet and Kaluuya's nominations, and if this really is Day-Lewis' last film ever as he's said, I'm glad he was nominated.


Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Analysis: I went 5/5 here. Streep gets her 21st nomination, amazingly. I'm pleased with this category although I wouldn't have minded seeing Annette Bening or Jessica Chastain in Streep's slot.


Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Analysis: I went 3/5 here, mainly because I voted with my heart and not my head. I truly am sad that Michael Stuhlbarg and Armie Hammer (in that order) were passed over for Call Me By Your Name. Neither Harrelson or Plummer's nominations surprised me; Harrelson played the slightly more sympathetic ying to McDormand and Rockwell's yang, and Plummer, essentially, was given an atta boy nomination for stepping in for Kevin Spacey and shooting all of his scenes in seven days. (If I'm being honest, I thought Plummer's performance was a little too C. Montgomery Burns in The Simpsons for me.)


Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Analysis: I went 4/5 here. I did mention Lesley Manville as a possibility, but I was pulling for Holly Hunter to get in for The Big Sick. While I loved Allison Janney's performance and she seems the one to beat, should Laurie Metcalf win the Oscar, she'll be three-fourths of the way to the EGOT, as she has already won Emmys and a Tony. Just saying.


Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out

Analysis: Again, I went 4/5 here. I did say I expected the Oscar nominees to differ slightly from the Directors' Guild Award nominations—I just didn't think Martin McDonagh (for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) would be the one to get snubbed. I had mentioned Anderson as an outside possibility; I am still a little surprised, however, at how well his film fared today. I'm disappointed, although not surprised, that Luca Guadagnino didn't get nominated for Call Me By Your Name, but I'm thrilled for Gerwig, Peele, Del Toro, and Nolan.


Who will win? The Oscars will be handed out March 4.

2017 Oscar Nominations: What I think...

Tomorrow isn't just another Tuesday: the Oscar nominations will be announced in the morning.

I've been reasonably (ha) obsessed with the Oscars since the 1980s, and so we make an effort to see every movie and performance nominated for the major awards before the Oscar telecast. (If what happens tomorrow is what I think, we won't have much more to see, thanks to a very movie-heavy holiday season.)

(I also have this stupid human trick that I can recite all of the nominees for the major categories—Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Director—from every year since the Oscars began in 1927. Seriously.)

But I digress.

For a while now, I've been making my predictions for which movies and performances I think will get nominated, then after the nominations are announced I come back and analyze how well I did. (Note: this isn't necessary who I think deserves to get nominated; often there's a pretty gap between what I want and what actually happens, because the Oscars are as much about paying back old slights, trying to take advantage of popularity, and other crazy politics as they are about who gave the best performances. But I digress.)

So, here's what I think will happen tomorrow around 8:38 a.m. ET. I know there's bound to be a surprise and/or disappointment (for me) or two, so...

Best Picture
The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Analysis: Since 2009, the Oscars have played coy with the number of films that get nominated for Best Picture. Using a preferential ballot, they'll allow as few as five and as many as ten nominees based on a threshold. I've predicted nine, but wouldn't be surprised if as few as six get nominated. Mudbound is another movie being talked about as a potential nominee, but since it was released by Netflix, that may be its disadvantage. Phantom Thread is another outside possibility.


Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour

Analysis: I feel secure about Chalamet, Kaluuya, and Oldman, and reasonably secure about Day-Lewis. The fifth spot would have belonged unequivocally to James Franco until the multiple allegations of sexual impropriety surfaced a few weeks back. However, since the story broke one day before voting ended, I think he'll probably still sneak in amidst the five. If not, I'd expect to see either Denzel Washington for Roman J. Israel, Esq. or, if the film resonates with Oscar voters, Tom Hanks for The Post. (Amazingly, Hanks hasn't been nominated in 18 years.)


Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Analysis: I feel secure about three of these nominees—Hawkins, McDormand, and Ronan—and feel Robbie is a fairly sure bet. Once again, it's that fifth slot that bewilders me. I would have thought Streep would be nearly certain to nab her 21st nomination, but The Post hasn't caught fire with many film critics or awards groups. While I still think she'll make the cut, other possibilities are Judi Dench, playing Queen Victoria yet again in Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain in Molly's Game, or Michelle Williams for All the Money in the World. And if I had my way, you'd see perenially overlooked Annette Bening on the list for Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool. Break, heart, yet again...


Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name

Analysis: So I'm going against the grain here and predicting what I want to happen. I have a feeling that Stuhlbarg, despite having the scene of the movie in Call Me By Your Name and also appearing in The Post and The Shape of Water will get overlooked, and Armie Hammer might as well. This will upset me a great deal. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see either of them and/or Richard Jenkins passed over for Christopher Plummer, who redid all of Kevin Spacey's scenes in All the Money in the World, Woody Harrelson for his smaller, somewhat-more-sympathetic part in Three Billboards, and 2015 winner Mark Rylance, who could ride the waves if Dunkirk gets lots of nominations tomorrow. And never count out Michael Shannon for The Shape of Water.


Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Analysis: Janney and Metcalf are the two sure things here. I think 2011 winner Spencer will get her third nomination, and I believe Hunter will ride the popularity of her little movie that could. Blige was nominated for both Golden Globe and SAG Award, but she may be hurt by the fact that the film is released by Netflix. Hong Chau has gotten great reviews (and Golden Globe and SAG Award nominations) for Downsizing, but she's the only thing mentioned positively related to her film. Other possibilities are Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread, Tiffany Haddish for Girls Trip, getting the Melissa McCarthy-type nod, or possibly Kristin Scott Thomas for her turn as Clemmie Churchill in The Darkest Hour.


Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out

Analysis: The five nominees I selected are also the five nominees for the Directors' Guild Award. Rarely do those nominees match the Oscar nominees completely, so I think there will be at least one person snubbed, and it may very well be Nolan, who has been passed over a few times in his career. (I hope it's not Gerwig or Peele that gets snubbed.) Who could replace Nolan or other snub-ees? I'd honestly love to see Luca Guadagnino get nominated for Call Me By Your Name, and it would be incredible to see Dee Rees get nominated for Mudbound alongside Gerwig, for two female Best Director nominees for the first time in history. Other surprises could include Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread or even two-time winner Steven Spielberg for The Post, although I doubt it.


And there you have it! Check back tomorrow to see which noms excited me, which enraged me, and which shocked me.

2015 Oscar Nominations: What actually happened

This morning, the nominations for the 88th annual Academy Awards were announced. The Revenant led all films with 12 nominations.

Yesterday I posted my predictions for what films and performances I thought might get nominated. And now, it's time to compare my thoughts to reality and see where they differ.

Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Analysis: You never know how many films will be nominated for Best Picture. The Academy chose eight again this year, although I had predicted nine. I chose all but Room, which was a tremendously pleasant surprise, instead thinking that Carol and Straight Outta Compton would be nominated. So I'm going to say I went 7/8 in this category.


Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Analysis: I went 5/5 here. Very happy with this category, although, as I said last night, I would have been happier had Michael B. Jordan gotten nominated for Creed. But I knew that wouldn't happen.


Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Analysis: I went 4/5 here, but through no fault of my own. As I mentioned last night, there was a great deal of debate about the so-called "category fraud" occurring, in which actors who gave leading performances were being campaigned for supporting categories. I thought the Academy would nominate Alicia Vikander, who was the female lead in The Danish Girl, in this category, but they did not. The good news, at least, is that never-nominated Charlotte Rampling finally received a nomination. So, lemons—lemonade.


Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Analysis: I went 5/5 here, too, although I would have been happier if Ethan Tremblay and Paul Dano made this list for their amazing performances in Room and Love & Mercy. I'm happiest about Stallone's nomination—amazingly he was nominated for playing the same character twice, 39 years apart. Pretty cool.


Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Analysis: Even though I got four of five actresses correct, I technically went 3/5 here, since, as I mentioned above, Alicia Vikander was nominated for The Danish Girl in this category instead of Ex Machina. And while I was hoping Joan Allen might sneak in here for Room, I wasn't disappointed that Rachel McAdams received her first nomination.


Best Director
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Analysis: I went 4/5 here. I really thought Ridley Scott would get nominated for The Martian, and, in fact, thought he might win the Oscar on his fourth nomination, but instead the Academy surprised with a (deserved) nomination for Abrahamson. Amazingly, only Iñárritu, who won last year and was nominated in 2006 for Babel, has ever received a Best Director nod before.


Who will win? Well, I think DiCaprio and Larson are relative locks for Best Actor/Actress, but who knows about everything else? February 28 is the big reveal...

2015 Oscar Nominations: What I think

It's that time again. Tomorrow morning at around 8:37 a.m. ET (aka hella early on the West Coast), the nominations for the 88th annual Academy Awards will be announced. There are guaranteed to be at least a few surprises—some pleasant, some not so much.

I've been a student and a fan of the Oscars for more than 30 years (egads), and as many of you know, we make every effort to see every film and performance nominated for the major awards (if we haven't already). No matter how much I listen to the chatter about who and what critics think will get nominations, there's never complete certainty. So for a number of years now, I've been making my predictions as to which films and performances will receive nominations. Sometimes I'm dead-on (or close), and sometimes I'm left scratching my head, but that's what makes it interesting.

This year is particularly fluid because there isn't really one movie that everyone has gotten behind, and there are even some questions as to whether certain performances should be considered in the lead or supporting categories. So I'm going to take a stab at this the best I can. Then check back tomorrow to see how I did!

Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Analysis: One of the quirks of the Oscars in recent years is that there is no fixed number of Best Picture nominees, beyond a minimum of five and a maximum of 10. Some years there have been nine, a few there have been ten, last year there were eight, so who knows? I predicted nine, although I feel like Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies, Carol and Straight Outta Compton are iffier than the others. Obviously, Straight Outta Compton isn't quite what you'd expect to get nominated for an Oscar, but it has been tremendously well-received, was nominated for best cast by the SAG Awards, and would be an antidote to those who have (rightfully) claimed that the Oscars don't often honor films about/made by/starring minorities. Other outside possibilities are Room, Inside Out, Beasts of No Nation, and, of course, the juggernaut, Star Wars: The Force Awakens. (If I had my way, Creed would get nominated.)


Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Analysis: I feel fairly confident about this group of five nominees, but of course, there are slight possibilities that Johnny Depp, once a leading contender for a nomination could still get one for his work in Black Mass (for which he received a SAG Award nod), Will Smith for his Golden Globe-nominated turn in Concussion, and, if the Academy voters have issues determining between lead and supporting performances, they could give a nod to either Christian Bale or Steve Carell for The Big Short. (If I had my way, Michael B. Jordan would get a nod for Creed, but then again, he should have been nominated two years ago for Fruitvale Station, but don't get me started.)


Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Analysis: Larson, Blanchett, and Ronan are locks in this category. Vikander should be, but despite being the female lead in her film (she even had more screen time than Eddie Redmayne), some think she could end up in the Best Supporting Actress category. I think perennial Academy favorite and 2012 winner Jennifer Lawrence is the weakest link here, but ultimately if Vikander gets demoted, I think Charlotte Rampling may get her first nomination for 45 Years, or Maggie Smith could sneak in for The Lady in the Van. (I'd love to see Lily Tomlin get nominated for Grandma, but, alas, I think not.)


Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Analysis: This is the toughest category to predict. In addition to these five men, there are at least six more who could sneak in—Steve Carell for The Big Short, Ethan Tremblay for Room, Idris Elba for his Golden Globe- and SAG-nominated turn in Beasts of No Nation, Michael Shannon (also nominated for both) for 99 Homes, Paul Dano for Love and Mercy, and Michael Keaton for Spotlight. I'm picking Hardy as an outside possibility because I think The Revenant will get a ton of nominations tomorrow, and much like Jonah Hill did two years ago for The Wolf of Wall Street, Hardy could ride the momentum. I will be most perturbed tomorrow morning if Stallone is left off the list. (My ideal five would be Bale, Dano, Ruffalo, Stallone, and Tremblay.)


Best Supporting Actress
Joan Allen, Room
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Analysis: If Vikander doesn't get bumped down to supporting for The Danish Girl, I predict she'll get two nominations. (And I think she was even better in Ex Machina.) I'm secure about Winslet, and reasonably so about Mara, although she should be a lead actress nominee, and Jennifer Jason Leigh. I'm picking a surprise in this category with Joan Allen, much as Laura Dern's nod for Wild last year, although Helen Mirren could snag another nomination for her hateful, hat-wearing Hedda Hopper in Trumbo. If either Spotlight, Brooklyn, or Mad Max: Fury Road have a great day tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised to see Rachel McAdams, Julie Walters, and/or Charlize Theron in this category.


Best Director
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian

Analysis: Best Director is always a tough category to predict, since directors nominate themselves, and quite often the nominated directors don't always match up with the Best Picture nominees (although more so since the number of Best Picture nominees has expanded beyond five). I think McCarthy and/or McKay could be vulnerable here, and could get passed up for Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies) and/or Todd Haynes (Carol), or a nominee I can't think of.

Fingers crossed!!

Oscars 2014: Who will win and who SHOULD win??

Tomorrow night is one of my favorite nights of the year—the Oscars.

If you know me reasonably well, or have been following my blog, you're aware of my obsession with all things Oscar. Of course, with any awards program, the winners are always subjective, and there's rarely universal agreement about who deserves to win. And with about a million different awards being handed out prior to the Oscars, there are rarely many surprises when the winners are finally announced on Oscar night.

But I won't let that stop me from sharing my predictions for who will win the major awards on Sunday night, and who I think should win. We've seen all of the films nominated for Best Picture, and all of the performances nominated for acting awards except one, so I feel pretty knowledgeable when sharing my opinions. (Not that I've let it stop me before.)

How accurate will I be? Tune in tomorrow night and find out!

Best Picture
The nominees are: American Sniper; Birdman; Boyhood; The Grand Budapest Hotel; The Imitation Game; Selma; The Theory of Everything; and Whiplash.

Who Will Win: As much as I'm hoping it won't, I believe Birdman may very well win Best Picture, although it's locked in a very tight race with Boyhood.

Who Should Win: My favorite movie of the year, and the film I believe most deserving of the Oscar, is Boyhood. Not only is it an achievement in filmmaking the likes of which no one has ever seen, but it's a beautifully told, artfully written, splendidly acted movie. Here's hoping it ekes out a victory!





Best Actor
The nominees are: Steve Carell, Foxcatcher; Bradley Cooper, American Sniper; Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game; Michael Keaton, Birdman; and Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything.

Who Will Win: This, like Best Picture, is a two-man race, between Eddie Redmayne, for his physical transformation into Stephen Hawking, and Michael Keaton, for his comeback role in a part seemingly written for him. Oscar loves biographies and physical transformations, but they also love comebacks, and while Redmayne won the Screen Actors Guild Award (he and Keaton both won Golden Globes), I think Keaton's film has the momentum, so I expect to see Keaton accepting the Oscar, although a Redmayne win wouldn't surprise me.

Who Should Win: Well, the actor who actually SHOULD win the Oscar, is David Oyelowo for Selma, but since he shockingly wasn't nominated, my second-favorite performance of the year was Redmayne's.


Best Actress
The nominees are: Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything; Julianne Moore, Still Alice; Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl; and Reese Witherspoon, Wild.

Who Will Win: Julianne Moore is widely expected to finally win an Oscar, on her fifth nomination. (She should have won before this, but that's another post for another day.) She has won the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild Awards, and many feel she's due.

Who Should Win: If there's any justice in the world, Moore will finally win her Oscar. But unlike many "it's about time" wins, her performance in Still Alice is absolutely exquisite. On the whole, this is a pretty strong group of nominees.



Best Supporting Actor
The nominees are: Robert Duvall, The Judge; Ethan Hawke, Boyhood; Edward Norton, Birdman; Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher; and J.K. Simmons, Whiplash.

Who Will Win: While I suppose there's a chance Robert Duvall could pull off a surprise win given the longevity of his career, I believe Simmons will take home the Oscar for his intense performance, as well as being in so many roles, including Farmers' Insurance commercials.

Who Should Win: Simmons was absolutely mesmerizing in this fantastic film. His is one of the performances that hasn't left my mind since I saw the film. But what's amazing about this category, other than Duvall, is that there are a few nominees who have done great work and are due for their own awards—Norton (who should have won in 1998 for American History X), as well as Ruffalo and Hawke, both of whom have turned in some really terrific performances through the years.


Best Supporting Actress
The nominees are: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood; Laura Dern, Wild; Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game; Emma Stone, Birdman; and Meryl Streep, Into the Woods.

Who Will Win: I believe Patricia Arquette, who has won nearly every precursor award given out prior to the Oscars, will take home her first Oscar tomorrow night. There's a tiny part of me that wonders if Laura Dern couldn't pull off a Marcia Gay Harden-like surprise win (neither were nominated for Golden Globe or SAG Awards), but I don't think Dern's role reached the intensity of Harden's in Pollock back in 2000.

Who Should Win: Dern, Knightley, Stone, and Streep all turn in memorable performances, but Arquette gave Boyhood such heart and soul. I'm so glad she's finally found a film role so perfect for her, and her performance really ran the gamut of emotions.


Best Director
The nominees are: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Alejandro Gonzalez Iñarritu, Birdman; Richard Linklater, Boyhood; Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher; and Morton Tyldum, The Imitation Game.

Who Will Win: Much like Best Picture, I think this is a two-person race between Gonzalez Iñarritu and Linklater. Some think that Birdman and Boyhood will split the top prizes, much like last year when 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture and Alfonso Cuaron won Best Director for Gravity. I still think Gonzalez Iñarritu will eke out the win.

Who Should Win: Hands down, Richard Linklater should win this award for his work on Boyhood. To come up with an idea like, let's film the same cast once a year for 12 years, and then do it so extraordinarily, is deserving of recognition, but his body of work is equally laudable. I hope he wins this.