It's that time again...tomorrow (Monday) at around 8:37 a.m. ET, the nominations for the 92nd Academy Awards will be announced. Those of you who know me know in addition to being a voracious reader, I'm a huge movie fan and the slightest bit Oscar-obsessed.
I definitely try to see everything that gets nominated in all of the major categories (some years even tracking a movie down to an obscure theater more than an hour from here) and for the longest time, one of my stupid party tricks is the ability to name the nominees and winners for Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Director from when the awards started in 1927 until present day. (Go ahead. Test me.)
As I've done the last several years, I've tried to predict what I think the Academy will do with regard to nominations. Some years I'm right on target and some years I get surprised (both positively and negatively). These predictions aren't what I would like to happen necessarily, it's just how I predict the Academy will behave.
This year, while there may be front-runners to win the four acting categories (Joaquin Phoenix, Renee Zellweger, Brad Pitt, and Laura Dern), the rest of the nominees could go in any number of directions. With a compressed schedule for nominations, it's anyone's guess (including mine) what will happen, so here's my best try. I'll report back Monday evening on how off-target I was.
Best Picture
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Parasite
Analysis: As they've been doing for a number of years now, the Academy nominates a random number of pictures between 5 and 10 based on a vote threshold, so you can never predict how many will be nominated. I chose nine although I'm hoping Knives Out and/or The Farewell winds up on the list, hopefully not at the expense of Little Women. Ford v. Ferrari might also be vulnerable.
Best Actor
Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari
Robert DeNiro, The Irishman
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Analysis: If I had my way, this category would include Antonio Banderas for his fantastic turn in Pain and Glory and Leonardo DiCaprio, for one of his best performances, in Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood. But from what I've been reading, people think DiCaprio has the weakest hold on a nod, and they think The Irishman will have a solid showing tomorrow, letting DeNiro slide in despite not having been nominated for either a Golden Globe or a SAG. I also think perennial Academy favorite Bale will sneak in. There are a number of other actors—Eddie Murphy in Dolemite is My Name, Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems, and Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes—which could also surprise.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Analysis: Again, there are a few other actresses whose names being called tomorrow wouldn't surprise me. I'd be thrilled if Awkwafina gets nominated for The Farewell (as long as it's not the expense of Saoirse Ronan), and there's also a possibility that Lupita Nyong'o could get nominated for Us (despite the dismal record of horror films at the Oscars) and/or Alfre Woodard could score her first nomination since 1983(!) for Clemency.
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Song Kang-ho, Parasite
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Analysis: I'm going with the surprise nomination of Song here despite his not being nominated for a SAG or Golden Globe, because I think Parasite will do really well tomorrow morning in the nominations. (Plus he was freaking fantastic.) Anthony Hopkins' performance as Pope Benedict in The Two Popes could get in, or a true supporting performance like Tracy Letts for his terrific turn in Ford v. Ferrari or Alan Alda for Marriage Story could surprise, too. (The interesting thing will be whether Tom Hanks gets nominated for the first time in 20 years—he's been expected to several times before and been left out.)
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Analysis: This is a tough category, really. I'm hoping that Zhao Shuzhen gets a surprise nomination for The Farewell. (I've totally given up hope that Annette Bening will get in here for playing Sen. Dianne Feinstein in the little-seen The Report, despite my total allegiance to her getting an Oscar someday.) Some think Robbie could get nominated for Once Upon a Time... instead (I don't think that would be deserving). There's also an outside possibility that despite doing little more than glaring, Anna Paquin could sneak in if The Irishman has a strong showing.
Best Director
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Analysis: I'd like to see Pedro Almodovar score his second Best Director nomination for Pain & Glory, or Greta Gerwig get in for Little Women (I really enjoyed the storytelling choices she made with this film) instead of Waititi, but I think this list will match the Directors' Guild nominees. Todd Phillips could get in for Joker, or Noah Baumbach could surprise with a nod for Marriage Story, too.
Hopefully it's a more exciting than frustrating announcement this year!
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