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One of my most favorite times of year is about to arrive.
Tomorrow morning at approximately 8:37 a.m. ET, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (specifically, the Academy president along with last year's Best Actress nominee Jennifer Lawrence) will announce this year's Oscar nominations. Even though there is no shortage of film awards given out nowadays, which certainly reduces the surprises the nominations bring, Oscar nomination day always gives me the nervous chills.
I've seen almost every movie in contention for major awards this year (there are still a few pesky films yet to be released in the Washington area) so I feel like I have a fairly good handle on which names will be called tomorrow, but there's always a surprise or two in store. And since the Academy and I don't always walk in lock-step, I also have a few things that I'd like to see happen (which probably won't).
So, here are my predictions for who (and what) I think will get the call tomorrow:
Best ActorGeorge Clooney,
The DescendantsJean Dujardin,
The ArtistMichael Fassbender,
ShameGary Oldman,
Tinker Tailor Soldier SpyBrad Pitt,
MoneyballAnalysis: Clooney, Dujardin, and Pitt are locks for nominations. I think Fassbender will get in for his no-holds-barred (and no-clothes-worn) performance, and I'm going with outside contender Oldman for his first nomination, although Leonardo DiCaprio has a strong shot for
J. Edgar. My favorite performance of the year is Michael Shannon in the amazing independent feature
Take Shelter. (Add that to your Netflix queue.)
Best ActressGlenn Close,
Albert NobbsViola Davis,
The HelpMeryl Streep,
The Iron LadyTilda Swinton,
We Need to Talk about KevinMichelle Williams,
My Week with MarilynAnalysis: Meryl Streep is a lock for her 17th nomination; Davis and Williams are locks for their performances, and I think Swinton is fairly solid. If there's an outside contender, it's Rooney Mara for her star-making portrayal of Lisbeth Salander in
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. If Academy voters feel strongly about Mara, she could bump either Close or Swinton.
Best Supporting ActorKenneth Branagh,
My Week with MarilynAlbert Brooks,
DriveJonah Hill,
MoneyballNick Nolte,
WarriorChristopher Plummer,
BeginnersAnalysis: I feel pretty safe with Branagh and Plummer, slightly less so with Brooks (only because he didn't get a SAG nomination). Jonah Hill seems a safe bet, but I'm never quite sure with the way the Academy treats the not-so-serious young actor suddenly taking a serious role (see Mila Kunis last year). And I'm going out on a limb with Nick Nolte, who received a SAG nomination for his transcending-against-type role in
Warrior.
Best Supporting ActressBerenice Bejo,
The ArtistJessica Chastain,
The HelpMelissa McCarthy,
BridesmaidsOctavia Spencer,
The HelpShailene Woodley,
The DescendantsAnalysis: Octavia Spencer and Berenice Bejo are locks, as is Jessica Chastain, who gave terrific performances in six movies in 2011. Melissa McCarthy has had a heck of a year, which very well might get capped off with an Oscar nomination. If there's a shaky plank in this category it's the youngster, Shailene Woodley, who absolutely deserves a nomination, but runs the risk of getting eclipsed either by Janet McTeer for
Albert Nobbs or Carey Mulligan for
Shame.
Best DirectorWoody Allen,
Midnight in ParisDavid Fincher,
The Girl with the Dragon TattooMichel Hazanavicius,
The ArtistAlexander Payne,
The DescendantsMartin Scorsese,
HugoAnalysis: I went with the five men nominated by the Directors Guild, although their results are rarely paralelled in total by Oscar. Outside contenders include Steven Spielberg for
War Horse, Terrence Malick for
Tree of Life (folks either LOVED it or hated it), and if
The Help or
Moneyball makes a really strong showing in the nominations tomorrow, either Tate Taylor or Bennett Miller could find themselves on this list.
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War HorseAnalysis: The biggest variable is the Best Picture category, because this year the Academy has announced there will be no less than five nominees and no less than ten, but isn't setting a fixed number. I'm betting on seven and am going with the films above;
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Bridesmaids and possibly even
The Tree of Life could fill the category if the number of nominees expands.
What will happen? Tune in tomorrowor at least come back to my blog tomorrowand see how I did.