Oscar Nominations: What I Think Will Happen

Those of you who know me well know that I've been fairly obsessed with the Oscars for years now. We do our best each year to see every movie and performance nominated for the major awards, and thanks to my ridiculous trivia-laden brain, I can tell you everyone nominated for Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Director, as well as all of the movies nominated for Best Picture, since the Oscars started in 1927. (It's a super-useful skill on the open market.)

Tomorrow morning at around 8:37 a.m. ET this year's Oscar nominations will be announced. As I've done for a number of years, I am listing my predictions of what I think will get nominated for the major categories (along with some analysis of what I wish would happen), and then tomorrow I'll see how I did.

So, here goes!

Best Picture
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Analysis: Every year since 2009 there has been a variable number of Best Picture nominees. Some years there are seven, eight, nine, even ten. No one knows how many there will be because of the way Best Picture nominees are voted for. I'm picking eight—if the Academy goes with one more I think it will be either If Beale Street Could Talk or First Man (which I loved); First Reformed, Mary Poppins Returns, or Crazy Rich Asians could surprise as well.


Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Analysis: If I had my picks, I'd have Lucas Hedges for Boy Erased and/or Ethan Hawke for First Reformed in there. While sadly, Hedges doesn't have a chance this year (and he also turned in another award-worthy performance in Ben is Back), Hawke could sneak in and replace Washington (Hawke has won more film critics' awards than any other actor). There's also a chance that Willem Dafoe could get a nod for his performance as Vincent Van Gogh in At Eternity's Gate.(Sadly, two other really strong performances—Ryan Gosling in First Man and Robert Redford for The Old Man and the Gun—don't even make the discussion.)


Best Actress
Yalitzia Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Analysis: While I believe that Close, Colman, Gaga, and McCarthy have their slots sewn up, that fifth one is anyone's guess. I'm betting Aparicio will ride a huge wave for Roma tomorrow, but other possibilities are Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns, Viola Davis for Widows, Nicole Kidman for Destroyer, and critical favorite Toni Colette for Hereditary. (If everything was fair, Julia Roberts would get a nomination for her fantastic performance in Ben is Back, and Charlize Theron deserves a nod for Tully, but comedies never fare well.)


Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Analysis: One of the things that will make me so happy tomorrow is if Sam Elliott finally gets his first Oscar nomination after a long career. However, I think he's the one with the best chance of being left off the list, too, in favor of last year's winner, Sam Rockwell, for Vice. (It's also possible that Chalamet, who received Golden Globe and SAG nominations, could be overlooked instead. If The Favourite leads the nominations tomorrow, Nicholas Hoult could also sneak in.


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Analysis: I really, really, really want Claire Foy to be nominated for First Man. I'm hoping she gets in over Blunt, who was the female lead (I hate when leading performances get nominated for supporting awards). I'd also like to see Nicole Kidman get nominated for Boy Erased, but that seems unlikely, as does my sentimental favorite, Michelle Yeoh, for Crazy Rich Asians. While King really should be the favorite for this award, there's an outside chance she could get passed over, like she did for the SAGs, although I doubt that will happen.


Best Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Analysis: I'm sticking my neck out with my prediction of Lanthimos over Adam McKay for Vice (who received a Directors Guild of America nomination along with Cooper, Cuaron, Farrelly, and Lee), but there's often one surprise. There are many times that actor-turned-directors don't get nominated when their films do (Ron Howard for Apollo 13, Ben Affleck for Argo, Penny Marshall for Awakenings), so Cooper could get left out, although I'd be surprised. Other possibilities include Damien Chazelle for First Man, Ryan Coogler for Black Panther, and Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk.


How off will I be? Check back tomorrow and I'll let you know. (If you listen closely, you might hear me cheering or crying, "Why?", tomorrow, too.)