Tomorrow morning, the Oscar nominations will be announced. Like everything else, this has been a strange year for movies, so the Oscar eligibility period was extended and the ceremony itself was delayed until late April. (It's usually all over by now.) And with everything eventually being available on streaming services, the number of movies eligible has increased as well.
I'm a huge Oscar fan, and every other year I would've seen nearly everything that's under consideration for awards. This year, however, I've seen only a few movies so far, although I intend to pick up the slack and see everything that gets nominated before the ceremonies occur.
One of my stupid pet tricks is my ability to name the nominees and winners for Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Director from when the awards started in 1927 until present day. (Go ahead. Test me.) As I've done the last several years, I've tried to predict what I think the Academy will do with regard to nominations. Some years I'm right on target and some years I get surprised (both positively and negatively). These predictions aren't what I would like to happen necessarily, it's just how I predict the Academy will behave.
This is a weird year, however. I expect to be either very right in most categories or very, very wrong. (I'm not sure which I hope for more.) So here's what I think, and I'll be back tomorrow to share what actually transpired!
Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis: Once again this year, the Academy has been mum on how many films will get nominated for Best Picture. (Starting next year, they'll go to a solid 10 nominees.) I picked 9 movies, but who knows? It's possible the Academy could go the comedy route with Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, go with The Mauritanian or One Night in Miami, or drop one or a few of these.
Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
Analysis: One thing is for absolute certain, and that is that Chadwick Boseman will win a posthumous Oscar for his utterly incredible performance in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. Ahmed and Hopkins are definite locks for nominations (some say this award would have been Hopkins' had Boseman not lost his courageous battle with colon cancer); Oldman probably will get in, although enthusiasm for Mank seems to have cooled a bit, and for me, Yeun is the wild card. I think he'll get in, although I wouldn't be surprised if either he or Oldman is passed over for Tahar Rahim in The Mauritanian. Delroy Lindo, who gave a strong performance in Da 5 Bloods, was the early favorite, but he didn't get Golden Globe or SAG nominations, so I don't know if that bodes well for him.
Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States Vs. Billie Holliday
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Analysis: I hemmed and hawed a bit here, and decided to go with Pike, who won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy, over Vanessa Kirby for Pieces of a Woman. Pike has been nominated before, but dark comedies don't always resonate well with the Academy, while Kirby has never been nominated but gives an emotional performance. Of course, I could be surprised even more and the sentimental favorite, 86-year-old Sophia Loren, could sneak in for A Life Ahead, 50 years after she won an Oscar for Two Women. I wish there was a slot for Michelle Pfeiffer for French Exit, but that seems less and less a possibility.
Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Analysis: So I'll address the elephant in the room first. I believe Boseman will be the first person to receive two posthumous acting nominations tomorrow, but I'll only be happy with one of them. I don't believe this performance would be recognized had he not died—it's really not much of a role, IMHO. I believe his slot should go to either Glynn Turman or Colman Domingo, Boseman's costars in Ma Rainey. Also, Kaluuya, who appears to be the frontrunner in this category, is the co-lead of the movie and doesn't belong here, but that's typical of the Oscars. In terms of other surprises, it's possible if Minari has an incredible showing that adorable Alan Kim could get a nod, or Jared Leto with his prosthetic overbite could sneak in for The Little Things.
Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Analysis: So this category is utterly unpredictable. I believe a spot belongs to Amanda Seyfried for Mank (she was great), but again, I think she'll be a victim of the movie's cooling hype. There is some momentum for Ellen Burstyn to get a nomination for a short performance in Pieces of a Woman, 20 years after her last nomination (which she should have won for, cough cough), but like Sophia Loren, she didn't receive Golden Globe or SAG nominations. Bakalova is actually the female lead, but anyone who had to act opposite Giuliani deserves something, no?
Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Analysis: If the Academy knows what's good for it, history better be made tomorrow, with the nomination of at least two women for Best Director. Regina King could sneak in as well for One Night in Miami, but whether she knocks out Sorkin or Fennell remains to be seen. Florian Zeller could sneak in, too, if the Academy likes The Father.
How right or wrong will I be? Tune in tomorrow!
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